Systemic Risk Survey Results - 2026 H2

Overview

The Bank of England’s financial stability objective is to protect and enhance the stability of the financial system of the United Kingdom. The Systemic Risk Survey contributes to this objective by quantifying and tracking, on a biannual basis, market participants’ views of risks to, and their confidence in, the stability of the UK financial system.^{footnote [1]}

The survey is generally completed by executives responsible for firms’ risk management or treasury functions. The results presented are based on responses to the survey and do not necessarily reflect the Bank of England’s views on risks to the UK financial system. Participants include UK banks and building societies, large foreign banks, asset managers, hedge funds, insurers, pension funds, large non-financial companies and central counterparties. Summary statistics are calculated by giving equal weight to each survey response.

Additional background information on the survey is available in the 2009 Q3 Quarterly Bulletin article Bank of England Systemic Risk Survey.

This report presents the results of the 2026 H2 survey, which was conducted between 27 July and 24 August 2026.

57 firms participated in the 2026 H2 survey, representing a 66% response rate.

Key results from 2026 H2 survey

• Survey respondents remain confident in the stability of the UK financial system, reporting a similar level of confidence compared to the 2026 H1 survey.
• The perceived probability of a high-impact event affecting the UK financial system over the short and medium term is higher compared to the previous survey.
• Geopolitical risk and cyberattack remain the two most frequently cited sources of risk among participants. They are also considered the most challenging risks to manage, as well as the most likely risks to materialise.
• The number of participants citing risks surrounding artificial intelligence has increased substantially, reaching its highest level recorded in the survey across all three categories: source of risk to the UK financial system, most challenging risk to manage, and most likely risk to materialise. Combined with a sustained upward trend over recent surveys, this suggests AI-related risks are becoming a mainstream concern for market participants.
• The proportion of respondents citing UK political risk has decreased compared to the 2026 H1 survey, while the proportion citing inflation risk has increased.

Confidence in the UK financial system

Respondents were asked about the level of confidence they have in the stability of the UK financial system over the next three years.

Chart 1 represents the results in one weighted measure, while the figures below and in Table A1 refer to simple percentages.

Survey respondents remain confident in the stability of the UK financial system, reporting a similar level of confidence compared to the 2026 H1 survey.

• 95% of respondents judge themselves as being very confident (39%, unchanged since the 2026 H1 survey), or fairly confident (56%, +2 percentage points).
• 5% of respondents judge themselves as being not very confident (-2 percentage points).
• No respondents report being completely confident, or having no confidence (unchanged since the 2026 H1 survey).

Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system

Respondents were asked for their view on the probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the short and medium term.^{footnote [2]}

Charts 2 and 3 represent results in one weighted measure, while the figures below and in Table A1 refer to simple percentages.

Respondents judge that the likelihood of a high-impact event is higher than judged in the previous survey over both the short and medium term.

Over the short term (0–12 months):

• No respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be very high (unchanged since the 2026 H1 survey).
• 28% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be high (+5 percentage points).
• 47% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be medium (unchanged since the 2026 H1 survey).
• 25% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be low (23%, -4 percentage points) or very low (2%, -2 percentage points).

Over the medium term (1–3 years):

• 7% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be very high (+5 percentage points).
• 40% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be high (-2 percentage points).
• 46% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be medium (unchanged since the 2026 H1 survey).
• No respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be very low (unchanged since the 2026 H1 survey), and 7% consider the likelihood to be low (-4 percentage points).

Sources of risk to the UK financial system

Respondents were asked to list the five risks they thought would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise. To give an overview of the results, answers, which were provided in free-text format, have been grouped into the 26 categories shown in Table A2.^{footnote [3]} The risks most frequently cited by respondents in the 2026 H2 survey as one of their top five risks are shown in Chart 4 below:

1. Geopolitical risk (cited by 91% of respondents, -4 percentage points since the 2026 H1 survey).

2. Cyberattack (75%, -7 percentage points).

3. Risks surrounding artificial intelligence (63%, +32 percentage points).

4. Risks associated with a UK economic downturn (51%, +4 percentage points).

5. Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation (32%, -16 percentage points).

The risks most commonly cited by market participants as their ‘number one’ source of risk to the UK financial system (Chart 5) were:

1. Geopolitical risk (47%, +2 percentage points).

2. Cyberattack (26%, unchanged since the 2026 H1 survey).

3. Operational risk (7%, -2 percentage points).

4. Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn (5%, unchanged since the 2026 H1 survey).

5= Risks associated with a UK economic downturn (4%, unchanged since the 2026 H1 survey).

5= Risks surrounding artificial intelligence (4%, +2 percentage points).

Geopolitical risk and cyberattack remain the two most frequently cited sources of risk with the greatest potential impact on UK the financial system, should they materialise.

The number of participants citing risks surrounding artificial intelligence has risen markedly over successive surveys.

• The number of respondents citing risks surrounding artificial intelligence has risen sharply (+32 percentage points) since the 2026 H1 survey. This represents one of the largest movements in recent survey rounds and moves AI-related risks from a relatively lower ranked concern to the third most cited risk amongst participants. Participants highlighted a range of concerns, notably the rapid pace of technological developments, alongside lack of controls and governance.
• Despite the steep increase in the number of respondents citing risks surrounding artificial intelligence, there has been only a small rise in the number of participants placing it as their ‘number one’ source of risk.
• Geopolitical risk (91%) and cyberattack (75%) continue to remain the most frequently cited risks.
• Geopolitical risk also remains, by a considerable margin, the most frequently cited ‘number one’ source of risk (mentioned by 47% of respondents).
• Respondents citing risk of financial market disruption/dislocation and operational risk have both fallen by 16 percentage points since the 2026 H1 survey.
• Beyond the top five risks, the number of participants citing UK political risk decreased (7%, -9 percentage points), while the number of participants citing inflation risk increased (9%, +7 percentage points).

Most challenging risks to manage as a firm

Respondents were asked to rank which of the five risks they identified would be the most challenging to manage, should they materialise.

The most cited risks are shown below (Chart 6):

1. Geopolitical risk (cited by 68% of respondents, -12 percentage points since the 2026 H1 survey).

2. Cyberattack (67%, -11 percentage point).

3. Risks surrounding artificial intelligence (37%, +26 percentage points).

4. Risks associated with a UK economic downturn (28%, +5 percentage points).

5. Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn (14%, -5 percentage points).

Geopolitical risk and cyberattack are still considered to be the most challenging risks to manage.

The share of survey respondents citing risks surrounding artificial intelligence has increased sharply, to its highest levels recorded in the survey.

• Although there has been a noticeable decrease in the number of respondents citing geopolitical risk (68%, -12 percentage points) and cyberattack (67%, -11 percentage points), they are still considered the most challenging risks to manage.
• There has been a steep increase in the number of respondents citing risks surrounding artificial intelligence (37%, +26 percentage points), now making it the third most challenging risk to manage.
• The proportion of respondents citing operational risk has continued to fall from its peak in the 2025 H1 survey, now dropping out of the top five most cited risks.
• The proportion of participants citing UK political risk has decreased (4%, -7 percentage points).

Key risks most likely to materialise

After respondents listed the five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, they were then asked to rank which of these risks they thought would be the most probable to materialise.^{footnote [4]}

The most cited risks are shown below (Chart 7):

1. Geopolitical risk (cited by 88% of respondents, +4 percentage points since the 2026 H1 survey).

2. Cyberattack (51%, -5 percentage points).

3. Risks associated with a UK economic downturn (37%, +2 percentage points).

4. Risks surrounding artificial intelligence (32%, +18 percentage points).

5. Operational risk (16%, -7 percentage points).

• Geopolitical risk remains the most likely risk to materialise according to respondents, continuing to rise since the 2025 H2 survey to reach its highest level recorded in the survey.
• Cyberattack and risks associated with a UK economic downturn remain the second and third most likely risks to materialise, respectively.
• The number of participants citing risks surrounding artificial intelligence has risen sharply since the 2026 H1 survey (+18 percentage points). It has continued its upward trend since the 2025 H1 survey and is now at its highest level recorded in the survey.
• The proportion of respondents citing UK political risk as the most likely risk to materialise has decreased by 9 percentage points.

Data appendix

• Table A1

  Aggregate risks to the UK financial system ^{(a) (b) (c)}

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) Entries are percentages of respondents and may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
  • (b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. Between 2020 H1 and 2021 H1, the survey was paused due to Covid.
  • (c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.
  • (d) Respondents were asked what the probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system was in their view, for both the short and medium term. Since the 2009 H2 survey, short and medium term have been specifically identified as 0–12 months and 1–3 years respectively. These terms were not explicitly defined in earlier surveys.
  • (e) Respondents were asked how the probability had changed over the past six months for the short and medium term. Since the 2009 H2 survey, short and medium term have been specifically identified as 0–12 months and 1–3 years respectively. These terms were not explicitly defined in earlier surveys.
  • (f) Respondents were asked how much confidence they had in the stability of the UK financial system as a whole over the next three years.
  • (g) Respondents were asked how their confidence had changed over the past six months. The question was asked from 2010 H1 onwards.

• Table A2

  Sources of risk to the UK financial system ^{(a) (b) (c) (d)}

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) Respondents were asked which five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, in order of potential impact (ie greatest impact first). Answers were provided in a free-text format and were subsequently coded into the above categories; only one category was selected for each answer. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.
  • (b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. Between 2020 H1 and 2021 H1, the survey was paused due to Covid.
  • (c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.
  • (d) Percentages of respondents citing each risk at least once in their top five, among those citing at least one risk.
  • (e) The definition of this risk includes risks associated with a snapback in low rates to more normal levels, as well as risks directly associated with low rates.
  • (f) Percentages of respondents citing each risk as their number one risk (ie the risk with the greatest potential impact), among those citing at least one source of risk.

• Table A3

  Risks most challenging to manage as a firm ^{(a) (b) (c)}

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) After respondents had listed the five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, they were asked to rank which of these risks they would find most challenging to manage as a firm. The data is based on participants top three ranked risks. Answers were provided in a free-text format and were subsequently coded into the above categories; only one category was selected for each answer. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data. Table entries are the percentages of respondents citing each risk at least once in this second question, among those citing at least one source of risk.
  • (b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. Between 2020 H1 and 2021 H1, the survey was paused due to Covid.
  • (c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.
  • (d) The definition of this risk includes risks associated with a snapback in low rates to more normal levels, as well as risks directly associated with low rates.

• Table A4

  Risks most probable to materialise ^{(a) (b) (c)}

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) After listing the five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, respondents were then asked to rank which of these risks they perceived as most likely to materialise. The data is based on participants top three ranked risks. This element of the survey was introduced in 2021 H2. Answers were provided in a free-text format and were subsequently coded into the above categories; only one category was selected for each answer. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data. Table entries are the percentages of respondents citing each risk at least once in this second question, among those citing at least one source of risk.
  • (b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. Between 2020 H1 and 2021 H1, the survey was paused due to Covid.
  • (c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.
  • (d) The definition of this risk includes risks associated with a snapback in low rates to more normal levels, as well as risks directly associated with low rates.